Letter to the Editor, The Star, 25.01.2001 FEWER, NOT MORE US BLACKS DIE FROM AIDS The article in The Star about a "rising tide" of AIDS cases among black Americans("Fighting Silence and Denial," 21 January) is long on claims but short on accuracy. In the interview, black AIDS activist Phill Wilson warns about a "demographic shift of AIDS" cases in the U.S. He asserts that the media's focus on AIDS in Africa distracts attention from AIDS among black Americans. The actual statistics do not support his claims. Here are the relevant facts: 1) There are 5.2 million black Americans males, aged 25-44. In 1998 (the latest year for which official numbers exist from the National Center for Health Statistics), there were 19,700 deaths in that cohort, or just 4/10 of one percent. This included 3,052 deaths from "HIV." 2) In 1997, however, there were 21,200 deaths of black males, 25-44 and of that number, 3,911 were said to be from "HIV." Thus, from 1997 to 1998, deaths among black males (aged 25-44) from all causes decreased by 8 percent and the number of HIV deaths declined by 20 percent! The official numbers about black women are similar: 1) There are 5.5 million black American women aged 25-44. In 1998, there were only 12,077 deaths from all causes in this healthy age cohort, a mortality rate of less than 3/10 of one percent. This included 1,506 deaths from HIV. 2) But in 1997, there had been 12,107 deaths from all causes and of that number, 1,673 were attributable to HIV. Thus for black women in America, their death rate numbers also declined. Finally, AIDS statistics from San Francisco confirm this downward trend. In 1990, a total of 2,334 cases of AIDS were reported in that city, of which 261 were African-American. For the year 2000, the total number of AIDS cases reported in San Francisco was 442, of which 93 were African Americans. Over the past ten years, AIDS cases in San Francisco have dropped 80 percent overall and declined 65% among black Americans. AIDS is rapidly becoming a medical non-issue in the United States. However, in the face of these statistics, it requires political momentum and scare-tales to sustain federal funds devoted to AIDS research. In 2000, the U.S. spent nearly $11 billion on AIDS. This year, it will be $11.7 billion and for 2002 it is projected to be $12.3 billion. With enormous amounts like these to protect, one should expect to find statistical sleight of hand. Mr. Phill Wilson's nimble conjuring act is a case in point. Let the South African reader beware. Sincerely yours, Prof. Charles Geshekter California State University, Chico Chico, California, US
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